The Fertility Crisis

This article (edited for length) was published in the Oxford Review of Books, Autumn 2025 edition.

Growing up in Hong Kong, I remember the news well: schools closing down for good because there weren't enough pupils, the looming spectre of a rapidly ageing population, and government incentives coaxing couples into having babies, including cash handouts and priority access to housing. None of it worked — Hong Kong still ranks consistently among the lowest birth rates in the world. In 2024, along with China, Taiwan and South Korea, it was one of just seven countries with a fertility rate below 1.0.

Among my friends who enjoy stable, well-paying careers, children may be an option. They can afford to hire live-in foreign domestic workers from the Philippines or Indonesia for childcare. The outsourcing of domestic la-bour to women from developing countries is an effective, albeit morally questionable way for Hong Kong women to 'have it all.' But those in more precarious, often creative, jobs often live with their parents or rent tiny shared apartments; they cannot see a future in which they can support children.

The reasons aren't hard to find. The education system is notoriously competitive, the housing situation increasingly unaffordable, and many feel politically uncertain about the city's future. With the average wait time for public housing being five years and preschool fees rivalling monthly rent, young couples see parenthood as a luxury. Many of my friends feel ambivalent about motherhood, including my sister, who has decided not to have children and has instead chosen a DINK (Dual Income, No Kids) lifestyle. For most, Hong Kong's bleak political future has strengthened their resolve against kids.

One key challenge this presents is a severely ageing population, especially when combined with the highest life expectancy in the world. Hong Kong was designated a “super-aged society” by the World Health Organisation last year, meaning that more than 20 per cent of its population is over 65. The United Nations projects that by 2050, this number will rise to over 40 per cent, giving Hong Kong the highest share of over-65s of any population worldwide. 

Why is this rapid demographic shift a problem? For one, the International Monetary Fund reported that an ageing population will create significant fiscal expenditure pressures for Hong Kong, even without factoring in the cost of necessary improvements to the social security system. As the working age population and tax base continues to shrink, the government would need to reform the tax system to ensure economic viability. More pressingly, an ageing population ramps up the pressure on the healthcare system, as the elderly are more likely to suffer from chronic health conditions.

But within these challenges, opportunities also emerge. The “silver economy” refers to the creation of goods and services targeted towards older demographics, and it has been a key priority for the Hong Kong government for the last few years. Older adults, particularly baby boomers who are currently in their sixties or seventies, are a major economic powerhouse due to their substantial net worth and spending power. As retirees, they also enjoy more free time which they spend on cultural and leisure activities including travelling. Still, the question remains whether a thriving silver economy can truly compensate for the social and generational gaps left by declining births.

My generation grew up watching the future shrink — no wonder many of us choose not to pass it on. It's a poignant reflection of what Hong Kong has become.